Forget the Hype: The Future of Television Isn’t What You Think

It’s easy to talk about the future of television as if it won’t exist. 围绕着流媒体的大肆宣传, you might be inclined to think that TV is close to uttering its dying breath. I know that I’ve been guilty of portraying that future, where consumers transition between linear broadcast and online streaming and people cut the cord, 放弃有线电视订阅, 在互联网上消费一切. 但事实真的是这样吗? Will online video replace television 正如我们所知?

I’m slowly coming to the conclusion that the answer to that question isn’t a simple yes or no. Although there is a lot of data indicating that online streaming is growing fast, 掐线者仍然是少数. Millennials subscribe to cable as much as any other demographic, and people are still watching five times as much television as they are streaming video. 当然, I could argue that statements like that (backed by data from Limelight Networks, 尼尔森, 和其他)是“时间点”.“他们描述了现在, not the future; the transition from linear broadcast to online streaming is a generational one. The long view likely reveals a different picture. But the elephant-in-the-room question remains: What’s the relationship between traditional television and online streaming? 因为, 真的, if there’s going to be a transition at some point, it’s probably less about the technology and more about the business models. Content owners and distributors will need to understand how to migrate their existing operations (like generating revenue from ads) to a different delivery method.

I think that when we talk now about a transition between the two delivery methods, 我们只见树木不见森林. What we should be talking about is what is happening underneath the surface of this supposed migration—video content, 正如我们所知, 正在改变. 从模拟到数字, 从地面广播到IP, video is becoming just a stream of data that can be transported, 显示, 随时随地都能消费. 事实上, the BBC has been exploring object-based broadcasting, 其中输出不是传统的, linear stream but rather a collection of objects and metadata that can be manipulated, 重新组装, 并被任何设备消耗. (一篇BBC博客文章t features some cool images explaining the entire concept.) The video viewing experience is being decoupled from where it’s watched, 无论是在线还是通过传统广播. It’s being deconstructed and distilled down into just a stream of bytes. The “future of television” isn’t 真的 about how video will get delivered (broadcast vs. online) but about what we will do with the content, 我们将如何与它互动, how the very experience of watching video will change from wherever we choose to consume it.

If you still want to imagine what television will look like in the future, it will probably be something hybrid—a combination of live and on-demand OTT and broadcast (even if it’s over IP). 但它们会被合并在一起. In the future that I can see, you won’t have to switch between Netflix and your programming guide. 因为一切都将通过API公开, XML, 还有很多其他的缩写词, service providers will put video sources together, 把它们捣碎, and deliver an experience that unshackles consumers from having to consume content in one specific way.

The future of television isn’t an either/or situation. 它不是线性广播或在线视频. 它介于两者之间, where it doesn’t matter how the content is being delivered, 或者是什么设备. 也许“过渡”这个词就是问题所在. Perhaps we should replace it with something more akin to what’s 真的 happening as people consume more online video: “evolution.”

This article originally ran in the July/August 2016 issue of 流媒体杂志 as “The Future of Television Isn’t What You Think.”

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